Seven realities of 2020 Presidential election

by Steve Corbin,
Professor Ermitus of Marketing
Univ. of northern iowa
With about 150 days remaining until the Nov. 3 presidential election, its paramount voters get focused.  Seven realities awaiting the electorate have less to do with the candidates than one may think.
Reality No. 1:  the election is already over in 38 states and the District of Columbia.  During the last five presidential elections, 72 percent of the 538 Electoral College votes were from states who voted the same way; 196 of the electoral votes from 15 states and D.C., were consistently Democrat and 191 of the votes came from 23 Republican-centered states.
The election comes down to 12 states with a combined total of 151 electoral votes.  Because 270 electoral votes are needed to win and assuming people in 38 states and D.C. vote like they have the past 20 years—past actions are the best predictor of future behavior—74 of the 151 votes are needed for Joe Biden to be our next president and 79 votes are required for Trump to remain in office.
From the most to the least number of electoral votes, the 12 key states include Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire.  Donald Trump won seven of these 12 states in 2016.
Reality No. 2:  Within the 12 key presidential election states, Democrats must win the favor of urban counties, college graduates, people of color and Millennial (1981-1996) women voters; Republicans must harness rural cities, citizens who didn’t attend college, white Silent Generation (1928-1945) male electorate and low-voter turnout.
Both parties get excited about young voters.  
Reality No. 3:  Peak youth voting turnout occurred in 1988 (George H. W. Bush vs. Michael Dukakis) at only 18.1 percent.
As 30-year Republican presidential strategist, Rick Wilson writes (Running Against the Devil, 2020), “the youth vote is a moving target, a political unicorn running through the field of poppies.”  Wilson contends reliable voter participation kicks in at 40 and advises party strategists:  “Memorize this rule:  Old people vote.  Repeat it until it sinks in.”
I must digress.  The sooner our republic can get 18- to 39-year-old people registered to vote and engaged in the political process in every local, state, and national election, the better off our democracy will become.  Period.
Reality No. 4:  Rather than focusing on a plethora of campaign promises and deceitful PAC ads, research reveals educated voters will support the presidential candidate who’s trustworthy, honest, exhibits sound character, demonstrates civility, is morally outstanding, models integrity and shows empathy for others.
Reality No. 5:  With the notion of Russia’s intervention of the 2016 election still fresh in the mind of voters, they are more attuned and less likely to be influenced by social media’s tsunami of fake news, bots, fearmongering, rampant disinformation, and partisan TV, cable, radio, and tabloid news reports.
Reality No. 6:  Due to COVID-19’s social distancing dictum, voter suppression attempts and voting by mail will be tested by both parties and the court system.  Expect a delayed official winner announcement.
The last reality of the forthcoming election relates to party identity.  Gerald Seib of the conservative Wall Street Journal notes Republicans have reversed course to become the party of tariffs, border walls and fearing diversity, while Democrats support free trade, immigration and embrace inclusion.  What a contrast.
James P. Carse, Professor Emeritus of History at New York University, may best summarize what we can expect from the Nov. 3 election:  “To be prepared against surprise is to be trained.  To be prepared for surprise is to be educated.”
Get ready America.  The reality of the presidential election will be like no other we’ve witnessed or imagined would ever occur.

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